MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
Slide 7
What happens when hazards and
stresses impact on people’s lives?
Depending on whether those people are vulnerable or resilient will affect the
outcome. More vulnerable people are less protected from hazards and stresses, they
are not able to cope, and therefore they suffer worse outcomes.
Where people have more resilient livelihoods the impact of a particular hazard event
or stress may be less as they are able to withstand, cope or recover.
Reducing vulnerability and building resilience are therefore important strategies for
poverty reduction.
Slide 10
People
Hazards and
Stresses
Outcome?
2012
Climate Projections – uncertainty!!!
• A great deal of uncertainty exists in the projections.
• climate change projections will be difficult and any
projections must be interpreted and used cautiously
as there are limitations of global and regional
climate models and observational datasets for most
regions of the world.
• Climate change is a multiplier of risk
• Climate change is not a unique hazard but will
interact with many of the underlying drivers of risk
resulting in complex, dynamic situations
Slide 8
Risk of an adverse event or disaster
Risk is a function of the strength of the Hazard
and the Vulnerability of those affected
• Risk is often expressed as:
R=HxV
Or
R = H x V/C
Slide 11
CC as Multiplier of Risk
• Climate change is not a unique or stand-alone
hazard.
• The changing climate will interact with and
compound existing hazards, stresses and
shocks leading to situations never previously
experienced.
• Weather related events are likely to become
more variable and extreme.
• Ecological changes will occur.
Slide 9
Increasing Severity of (some) Hazards
• The number of disasters are increasing, particularly hydro-meteorological
disasters (weather events).
• Experts believe that some of the increase in reported disasters can be
attributed to increases in extreme climatic events, but the proportion is
very difficult to determine and attribution is even tougher
• Impact on hazards (IPCC 2007) Confidence in understanding or projecting
changes in hazards and extremes depends on the type of extreme, as well
as on the region and season.
• Frequency and magnitude of hot/cold extremes increasing and projected
to continue. Same with heavy precipitation. No clear trend in tropical
cyclones.
• Some suggestion that droughts will increase, but this depends on
definition of drought and the area in question.
Slide 12
Greatest impact is likely to be on
Livelihoods
• Potential decrease in crop yields, increase in
water scarcity, biodiversity loss
• New patterns of vector-borne diseases,
increase in respiratory diseases
• In countries with weaker risk-reducing
capacities, underlying risk drivers such as poor
urban governance, vulnerable rural livelihoods
and ecosystem decline will be exacerbated by a
rapid expansion of weather-related risk.
A Training Manual on Use of Climate Information and Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment for
Agricultural Extension Staff in Zimbabwe
Page 111